🔗 Share this article

In October 2022, as Rishi Sunak assumed office as the UK's leader, he was the fifth UK leader to occupy the position in six years.

Triggered in the UK by Brexit, this signified unprecedented political turmoil. So what term captures what is unfolding in the French Republic, now on its sixth premier in two years – with three in the past 10 months?

The current premier, the newly reinstated Sébastien Lecornu, may have secured a temporary reprieve on that day, sacrificing Emmanuel Macron’s flagship pensions overhaul in exchange for support from Socialist lawmakers as the cost of his administration's continuation.

But it is, in the best case, a short-term solution. The EU’s number two economic power is locked in a ongoing governmental crisis, the likes of which it has not experienced for many years – possibly not since the establishment of its Fifth Republic in 1958 – and from which there seems no simple way out.

Governing Without a Majority

Key background: ever since Macron called an risky early parliamentary vote in 2024, the nation has had a hung parliament separated into three warring blocs – left, the far right and his own centrist coalition – without any group holding a clear majority.

Simultaneously, the country faces dual debt and deficit crises: its national debt level and budget shortfall are now almost twice the EU limit, and hard constitutional deadlines to pass a 2026 budget that at least begins to rein in spending are approaching.

Against that unforgiving backdrop, both the prime ministers before Lecornu – Michel Barnier, who lasted from September to December 2024, and François Bayrou, who took office from December 2024 to September 2025 – were removed by parliament.

In September, the leader named his trusted associate Lecornu as his new prime minister. But when, a little over two weeks ago, Lecornu presented his government team – which turned out to be much the same as the old one – he encountered anger from both supporters and rivals.

So much so that the next day, he stepped down. After just 27 days in office, Lecornu became the shortest-lived premier in modern French history. In a respectful address, he blamed political intransigence, saying “party loyalties” and “certain egos” would make his job all but impossible.

Another twist in the tale: shortly after Lecornu’s resignation, Macron requested he remain for two more days in a final attempt to salvage cross-party backing – a task, to put it gently, not without complications.

Next, two ex-prime ministers publicly turned on the embattled president. Meanwhile, the right-wing RN and radical left France Unbowed (LFI) declined to engage with Lecornu, vowing to reject all future administrations unless there were early elections.

Lecornu stuck at his job, engaging with all willing listeners. At the end of his 48 hours, he went on TV to say he thought “a solution remained possible” to avoid elections. The president’s office announced the president would appoint a new prime minister two days later.

Macron honored his word – and on Friday reappointed Sébastien Lecornu. So this week – with Macron commenting from the wings that the country’s rival political parties were “creating discord” and “solely responsible for this chaos” – was Lecornu’s moment of truth. Could he survive – and can he pass that vital budget?

In a critical address, the 39-year-old PM outlined his financial plans, giving the Socialist party, who oppose Macron’s controversial pension changes, what they were waiting for: Macron’s key policy would be suspended until 2027.

With the right-wing LR already supportive, the Socialists said they would refuse to support no-confidence motions tabled against Lecornu by the far right and radical left – meaning the administration would likely endure those ballots, due on Thursday.

It is, nevertheless, far from guaranteed to be able to pass its planned €30bn budget squeeze: the PS clearly stated that it would be seeking more concessions. “This,” said its head, Olivier Faure, “is just the start.”

A Cultural Shift

The problem is, the more Lecornu cedes to the centre-left, the more opposition he'll face from the right. And, like the PS, the conservatives are themselves divided over how to handle the new government – certain members remain eager to bring it down.

A glance at the parliamentary arithmetic shows how tough Lecornu’s task – and future viability – will be. A total of 264 deputies from the RN, radical-left LFI, Greens, Communists and hardline-right UDR seek his removal.

To achieve that, they need a 288-vote majority in parliament – so if they can convince only 24 of the PS’s 69 members or the LR’s 47 representatives (or both) to vote with them, Macron’s fifth precarious prime minister in 24 months is, like his predecessors, toast.

Few would bet against that happening sooner rather than later. Even if, by some miracle, the divided parliament summons up the collective responsibility to pass a budget by year-end, the prospects for the government beyond that look grim.

So is there a way out? Early elections would be unlikely to solve the problem: polls suggest pretty much every party bar the RN would see reduced representation, but there would still be no clear majority. A fresh premier would confront identical numerical challenges.

Another possibility might be for Macron himself to step down. After winning the presidential election, his replacement would dissolve parliament and aim for a legislative majority in the following election. But that, too, is uncertain.

Polls suggest the next occupant of the Elysée Palace will be Le Pen or Bardella. There is at least an strong possibility that French electorate, having elected a far-right president, might reconsider giving them parliamentary power.

Ultimately, France may not escape its predicament until its leaders accept the new political reality, which is that decisive majorities are a bygone phenomenon, absolute victory is obsolete, and compromise is not synonymous with failure.

Many think that transformation will not be possible under the existing governmental framework. “This isn't a standard political crisis, but a crise de régime” that will prove anything but temporary.

“The system wasn't built to encourage – and even disincentivizes – the emergence of governing coalitions common in the rest of Europe. The Fifth Republic could be in its final stage.”