Starmer's Backers Begin 'Halt Andy Burnham' Drive to Thwart Mayor's Commons Comeback
Loyalists of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have allegedly started a coordinated campaign to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from securing a return to the House of Commons. This move comes after the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has triggered an impending by-election.
Major Barriers in the Candidate Selection Procedure
Several figures on the party's powerful national executive committee (NEC) have reportedly predicted it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection procedure. This is largely due to the sizable presence of Starmer loyalists on the body who are keen to avert any potential leadership challenge.
The Labour hierarchy is said to have mobilised following the announcement of the MP's intended resignation, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial financial cost and electoral danger of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
The Mayor's Aspirations and Internal Disquiet
Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Previously, he prompted anger in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he stated that many MPs had urged him to stand for the Labour leadership.
There has long been speculation that he is seeking a return to parliament to potentially contest the party leadership should a contest to Sir Keir arise. However, supporters of the Mayor have cautioned against overstating the level of any scheming, suggesting he is deeply committed to his current role and would solely return national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.
Current Climate and Poll Ratings
Amid polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only senior Labour figure with favourable public approval ratings.
Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several hurdles remain. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the byelection against competition from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any possible bid for the leadership.
The 'Stop Andy' Campaign
High-ranking Labour sources have indicated that a "Stop Andy" operation is already in progress, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister personally said that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to stop talking about possible contests for the leadership.
Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Financial and Political Dangers
NEC members have reportedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated ÂŁ500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.
A number of insiders also expressed fears about Reform UK potentially win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.
Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns
Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. It is also possible the committee could enforce an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.
However, a supporter counselled against presuming the NEC would simply reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.
The unions hold a significant proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are for now keeping their counsel, sources suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.
The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
By-election Battle
The seat in question holds a considerable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is likely to launch a strong campaign, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.
If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the backbenches.
The departing MP stated he was resigning due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it untenable for him to continue in his role. He also remains under a standards inquiry concerning his membership in an inappropriate online group.
